I would say that is a more simple way of looking at it. but to combat some of these things, there endless so called financial programs, schemes and products they have invented.

Repos, reverse repos, fixed and variable interest rates, derivatives, shorts, QE, QT, stock market, crypos , treasures, bond yields and many others. Everything from cooking the books to shadow banking.

Essentially they are constantly try to rig the game in their favor. The central bankers I mean. And central banks are not all the same. Central banks in Europe for example are linked to ECB, European Central Bank that is supplied by mouse click money from American FED. And FED (Federal Reserve Bank) is neither Federal, nor it has any reserves, and its more like 12 special banks.

Also deflation and inflation is a tricky game for many countries who trade in US dollars. Right now with all the fake fiat currencies losing value , except in the exchange rate with the dollar. Euro has fallen bellow dollar now I think, and this creates its own problems. Even though Dollars have been printed out of thin air more than other currencies like Euros, dollar being stronger than Euro can be a problem because its harder for EU to pay back the debt with weaker Euros. So even with inflation, the borrowers are in trouble in Eurozone. It can get less for its Euros, but because it has to ultimately return debt in dollars to US for example it has a problem on that side and Russians demand rubles for gas and oil.

"Essentially, inflation helps lenders and deflation helps borrowers."

All things being equal this might be so, but things are a bit more complicated. Lets say you have people who have fixed mortgage rates and inflation means they would have to pay less dollars back, right? But what if inflation means that price of living goes up as well. So now they have to pay less for mortgage if they managed to get the fix rate, but they still have to spend more dollars on living expenses, and if things get really crazy like during lock downs, US goverment gets involved and say that tenants don't have to pay the rent to building owners. This means that if building owner depends on rents for income to pay back the mortgage rate, fixed or not, he is screwed.

Bottom line is that inflation really only benefits those that use other people's money or create it with a mouse click, and even then sooner or later will face consequences. Inflation effects everything.

The problem of inflation and deflation is more a problem of monetary theory, especially modern monetary theory than anything else. Its an attempt to control it all. Off course greed eventually means they will lose control over the control mechanizms because once the currency goes in circulation they cannot control it as much as they would like to and if they practice social credit system they destroy the productive part of society, eventually having to print more to try and compensate, increasing pace of inflation.

This is what we see in the western nations now. Loss control. In the end they kill the golden goose and there is no more golden eggs.

Deflation implies control over the process and also that inflation and deflation is the best way to control economy. This is the kenysians approach and the so called neo-kenysians have created what is now called modern monetary theory. I just call it kleptocracy. About as removed from economy as any communist model.

You said: "Inflation means the money they borrow can be paid back later with a less valuable dollar."

The assumption is that they borrow and pay back in dollars and that they can Conjure up dollars out of nowhere. But what if the debt is in dollars but borrower is payed in another currency, like Yen, or Rupies? And what if they need many of these to exchange for dollar because dollar is a lot stronger?

Good for borrowing, not good for paying back because they have to still make exchange of their currency for dollars.

No matter how one looks at it, even for central bankers, there are limits.

Some good set of articles on the topic, to add to discussion.

Value destruction

Apr 21, 2022·Alasdair Macleod

In recent articles I have argued that the era of a financialised fiat dollar standard is ending. This article takes my hypothesis further and explains that it is not just the emergence of new commodity backed currencies in Asia that will threaten the dominance of Western currencies, but the Fed’s failing monetary policies and those of the other major central banks. An unstoppable rise in interest rates will in large part be responsible for their demise.

Financial markets in thrall to the state underestimate the forces collapsing the financial bubble. Even the existence of the bubble is disputed by those within its envelope. But financial assets represent most of the collateral securing the banking system, and their collapse triggered by higher interest rates will take out businesses, banks, even central banks and make financing of soaring government deficits impossible without accelerated currency debasement.

Will central banks try to preserve financial asset values to stop the West’s financial system from imploding? Keynesian theory demands increased deficit spending to counteract the contraction of bank credit.

As long as this is the case, the planners will destroy their currencies — confirmed by the John Law episode in 1715-1720 France. It is from this fate that China, Russia, and the architects planning a new Central Asian trade currency are planning their escape.

[goldmoney.com]

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The global debt problem

Apr 8, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

It has been recently estimated that global debts stand at $284 trillion equivalent, representing 355% of global GDP. Estimates such as these must be treated with caution, and they probably underestimate financial sector debt. Furthermore, no allowance in these figures is made for OTC derivatives, which according to the Bank for International Settlements have a gross value of $15.48 quadrillion(!), netting out at $609 trillion.

This article comments on the different debt sectors: government, finance, non-financial corporate and consumer debt. It finds the dangers of excessive corporate debt have had the least attention, and that systemic risk in commercial banks is grossly underestimated.

The rapid growth of emerging market corporate debt is a recipe for a repeat of the Asian crisis in the late-1990s.

Ultimately, the whole debt burden will fall on government shoulders in their threefold attempt to protect the banks, stop a recession and to continue puffing up a wealth effect by inflating increasing amounts of currency into financial markets.

The trigger to end the debt crisis is almost certainly rising bond yields.

[goldmoney.com]

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The stagflation myth

Oct 14, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

Describing evolving inflationary conditions as stagflation misses the point about today’s inflationary conditions. Stagflation was originally used only in the context of excessive wage increases not matched by improved trading prospects. Just in that narrow sense, today we are experiencing stagflation.

But in the wider context inflationary conditions being described as stagflation are not stagflation at all. They are the consequences of increased money supply undermining the purchasing power of currencies —an extremely dangerous economic condition that, unless it is fully checked, leads to the destruction of a fiat currency.

In the UK and elsewhere politicians are claiming that higher wages for the low paid are needed to get them back to work. Without an increase in productivity, it amounts to a recommendation in favour of stagflation. But in measuring stagnating production, politicians and economists alike are being misled by estimates of individual productivity by the OECD, which produces the basic statistics.

This article demonstrates the incorrect assumptions behind the OECD’s calculations on productivity and why it is not the function of governments to attempt to manage it. If governments are to do anything positive, it should be to cut employment taxes and stop interfering.

The reader less interested in the abuse of labour and production statistics might like to skip the section on the OECD’s approach to productivity for the brief update on the wider evolution of global hyperinflation later in the article.

[goldmoney.com]

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Understanding the inflation problem

Jan 20, 2022·Alasdair Macleod

In recent weeks inflation has become a major economic concern. Nearly all the commentary emanating from monetary policy makers, economists, and the media is misguided, believing inflation is rising prices and must be addressed accordingly.

They are only the symptoms of inflation. The true cause is the expansion of currency and bank credit, which, reflected in the US dollar’s M2 money supply has increased substantially since March 2020, and now stands at nearly three times the level when Lehman failed.

After defining the differences between money, currency, and credit which together make up the media of exchange, this article explains how changes in the quantities of currency and credit translate into prices.

The solution to the inflation problem is not price controls, which are always counterproductive, but to return to a regime of sound money. This article shows what must be done to achieve this outcome and concludes that it is impossible to do so without a sufficiently serious financial and economic crisis to discredit government intervention in markets and to then allow governments to stabilise their currencies and reduce their spending to a bare minimum.

[goldmoney.com]

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Money supply and rising interest rates

Jan 6, 2022·Alasdair Macleod

The establishment, including the state, central banks and most investors are thoroughly Keynesian, the latter category having profited greatly in recent decades from their slavish following of the common meme.

That is about to change. The world of continual Keynesian stimulus is coming to its inevitable end with prices rising beyond the authorities’ control. Being blinded by neo-Keynesian beliefs, no one is prepared for it.

This article explains why interest rates are set to rise substantially in this new year. It draws on evidence from the inflation crisis of the 1970s, points out the similarities and the fact that currency debasement today is far greater and more global than fifty years ago. In the UK, half the current rate of monetary inflation for half the time — just for one year — led to gilt coupons of over 15%. And today we have Fed watchers who can only envisage a Fed funds rate climbing to 2% at most…

A key factor will be the discrediting of this Keynesian hopium, likely to be replaced by a belated conversion to the monetarism that propelled Milton Friedman into the public eye when the same thing happened in the mid-seventies. The realisation that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon will come too late for policy makers to stop it.

The situation is closely examined for America, its debt, and its dollar. But the problems do not stop there: the risks to the global system of fiat currencies and credit from rising interest rates and the debt traps that will be sprung are acute everywhere.

[goldmoney.com]

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Too much liquidity

Jun 17, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

Yesterday, the FOMC released its June statement which only served to remind us that its members are powerless in the face of inflationary conditions. They refuse to accept the price consequences of monetary inflation, still clinging on to an increasingly untenable hope that price rises are “transitory”.

The fact of the matter is that the world is now awash with excess money, the two greatest inflationists being the Fed and the Bank of England. In the US, the Fed’s $120bn monthly QE continues to goose financial asset values, while the US Government has spent a further trillion into circulation from its general account at the Fed. This tidal wave of money threatened money market funds totalling over $4 trillion with negative rates, thereby “breaking the buck”, which is why the Fed has increased its outstanding reverse repos to $721bn.

Interest rates will have to increase far earlier than the Fed admits to stop foreigners dumping dollars, not just for commodities which have nearly doubled since March 2020, but for other currencies as well.

Welcome to the everything bubble, whipped up by American and British neo-Keynesian policy makers who are now increasingly cornered by their own monetary fallacies.

[goldmoney.com]

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Interest rates, money supply, and GDP

Dec 9, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

That the world is on the edge of a monetary and economic cliff is becoming increasingly obvious. And becoming more obviously permanent than transient, price inflation will almost certainly lead to rising interest rates. Rising bond yields, falling equity markets and debt-triggered insolvencies will naturally follow.

According to the economists prevalent in official circles, a prospective mix of so-called deflation and rising prices are contradictory, should not happen at the same time, and therefore cannot be explained. Yet that is the prospect they now face. The errors in their lack of economic judgement have evolved from the time when central banks began to manipulate their currencies to achieve economic objectives and then to subsequently dismiss the evidence of policy failure. It has been a cumulative process for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England since the 1920s, which can only now end in a final catastrophic failure.

The denial of reasoned economic theory, embodied in a preference by state actors for state-driven outcomes over free markets, has led to this cliff-edge. This article explains some of the key errors in economic and monetary theory that have taken the world to this point — principally the relationships between interest rates, money supply, and GDP.

[goldmoney.com]

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The euro’s death wish

Nov 25, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

Last week’s Goldmoney article explained the Fed’s increasing commitment to dollar hyperinflation. This week’s article examines the additional issues facing the euro and the Eurozone.

More nakedly than is evidenced by other major central banks, the ECB through its system of satellite national central banks is now almost solely committed to financing national government debts and smothering over the consequences. The result is a commercial banking system both highly leveraged and burdened with overvalued government debt secured only by an implied ECB guarantee.

The failings of this statist control system have been covered up by a pass-the-parcel any collateral goes €10 trillion plus repo market, which with the TARGET2 settlement system has concealed the progressive accumulation of private sector bad debts ever since the first Eurozone crisis hit Spain in 2012.

These distortions can only continue so long as interest rates are suppressed beneath the zero bound. But rising interest rates globally are now a certainty — only officially unrecognised by central bankers — so there can only be two major consequences. First, the inevitable Eurozone economic recession (now being given an extra push through renewed covid restrictions) will send debt-burdened government deficits which are already high soaring, requiring an accelerated pace of inflationary financing by the ECB. And second, the collapse of the bloated repo market, which is to be avoided at all costs, will almost certainly be triggered.

This article attempts to clarify these issues. It is hardly surprising that for the ECB raising interest rates is not an option. Therefore, the recent weakness of the euro on the foreign exchanges marks only the start of a threat to the euro system, the outcome of which will be decided by the markets, not the ECB.

[goldmoney.com]

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Money, funny-money and crypto

Nov 4, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

That the post-industrial era of fiat currencies is coming to an end is becoming a real possibility. Major economies are now stalling while price inflation is just beginning to take off, following the excessive currency debasement in all major jurisdictions since the Lehman crisis and accelerated even further by covid.

The dilemma now faced by central banks is whether to raise interest rates sufficiently to tackle price inflation and lend support to their currencies, or to take one last gamble on yet more stimulus in the hope that recessions can be avoided.

Politics and neo-Keynesian economics strongly favour monetary inflation and continued interest rate suppression. But following that course leads to the destruction of currencies. So, how should ordinary people protect themselves from currency risk?

To assist them, this article draws out the distinctions between money, currency, and bank credit. It examines the claims of cryptocurrencies to be replacement money or currencies, explaining why they will be denied either role. An update is given on the uncanny resemblance between current neo-Keynesian monetary inflation and support for financial asset prices, compared with John Law’s proto-Keynesian policies which destroyed the French economy and currency in 1720.

Assuming we continue to follow Law’s playbook, an understanding why money is only physical gold and silver and nothing else will be vital to surviving what appears to be a looming crisis in financial assets and currencies.

[goldmoney.com]

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The futility of central bank policy

Nov 11, 2021·Alasdair Macleod

It is only now becoming clear to the investing public that the purchasing power of their currencies is declining at an accelerating rate. There is no doubt that yesterday’s announcement that the US CPI rose by 6.2%, compared with the longstanding 2% target, came as a wake-up call to markets.

Along with the other major central banks, the Fed’s reaction is likely to be to double down on interest rate suppression to keep bond yields low and stock valuations intact. The alternative will lead to a major financial, economic and currency shock sooner rather than later.

This article introduces the reader to some of the basic fallacies behind state currencies. It explains the misconceptions policy planners have over interest rates, and how central banks have become contracyclical lenders, replacing commercial banking’s credit creation for non-financial activities.

In effect, narrow money is being used by the major central banks in a vain attempt to shore up government finances and economic activity. The consequences for currency debasement are likely to be more immediate and profound than cyclical bank credit expansion.

[goldmoney.com]

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Experience vs. Theory

[goldswitzerland.com]

Two more good resources:

Best Evidence: Ur Federal Reserve cancer Rx is ready for pickup

The Unholy Trinity of the U.S.—the Federal Reserve, BlackRock and the U.S. Treasury—all concur: it’s lights out for the U.S.

Unsustainable debt levels, check.
Runaway inflation, check.
Imminent loss of world reserve currency status, check.

These are the consequences of entrenched deficits, according to the criminal powers that be, as reflected in their documents and testimony.

What’s so astonishing about the imminent loss of world reserve currency status by the U.S. dollar is that the foregoing opinions were rendered BEFORE the Federal Reserve itself confirmed for all the world to see that the U.S. has no rule of law at all, but is instead ruled by out-of-control bankers who acted on what will prove to be a fatal whim by freezing Russian reserves without so much as the pretense of due process; the Fed just upped and did it, despite the fact that all monetary instruments in the U.S., regardless of who they belong to, are legal instruments.

Incredibly, the same Fed Chairman who presided over this idiocy then turned around and testified before congress that world reserve currency status HINGES ON the very thing he just destroyed, which was the rule of law.

And yet throughout this entire nuclear clown show, nowhere in any official discussion of what ails the U.S. does one find any discussion whatsoever of the actual root of the problem, to wit, a monetary system in which the nation-state host is now borrowing money from its lead parasite (the Fed) at interest, as opposed to bypassing that tapeworm and issuing money itself, ever addressed. Instead, the Unholy Trinity freely opines that the only remedy for the country’s ills is to work enormous austerity and tax increases on its inhabitants. The good doctors, in other words, are telling the stage 4 cancer patient that his only hope now is to subject himself to the massive atrophy of chemo treatments, but with the cancer itself shielded off from the radiation.

Meanwhile, the sedated patient is subjected to the full-on looting by more QE (inevitable) and a wild array of grotesque distractions, not one of which has the slightest chance of changing the inevitable outcome of the U.S. debt-based monetary system from its inevitable demise now that the country is past the point of no return with debt levels.

These and other cheerful topics are discussed herein.

References:

[1] “The David Rubenstein Show: Fed Chair Jerome Powell,” Apr. 22, 2021,

[2] BlackRock, “Dealing with the next downturn,” Aug. 2019 • [blackrock.com]

[3] House Financial Svcs. Cmte, Hearing on Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy, March 2, 2022, at 1:05:40 (Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-NY), [c-span.org]

[4] FY2021 Financial Report, U.S. Treasury • [thebalance.com]

[5] Luke Gromen, “Potential US Fiscal Path From Here, Is QE Money Printing or Not, & More,” Dec. 21, 2021,

[6] Tax Receipts vs. Budget Items, pct GDP, 1960-2020 • [fred.stlouisfed.org] (GDP) • [thebalance.com] (tax receipts)

[7] Social Security, 1960-2020 • [ssa.gov]

[8] Medicare and Medicaid, 1960-2020 • [cms.gov]

[8] Interest payment on U.S. debt, 1960-2020 • [fred.stlouisfed.org]

[9] “Has the Federal Reserve Kept 2 Sets of Books for the Last 50 Years?”
•

The Shocking Truth of FASAB 56 And What It Seeks To Hide

July 17, 2019 The Sirius Report Economics 7

Medusa242 [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)]

We have previously commented on FASAB 56, in podcasts and interviews, but felt it was time to put something in writing to highlight a very serious issue, which predictably has had virtually no coverage in the mainstream media and also very little in the alternative media too.

We would first direct people to look at the extensive work that Catherine Austin Fitts and Mark Skidmore have done in highlighting the missing minimum $21tn on the US balance sheet and how when questioned about this apparent oversight, the matter was conveniently buried. We would also draw your attention to the following link which details extensively the work undertaken with regards to FASAB 56.

[constitution.solari.com]

We would however like to mention a few points in this article to highlight why we regard this as having major potential ramifications. FASAB sets the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for the federal government and are used to determine the content and structure of the financial reports the federal government agencies and departments should adhere too. The adoption of Standard 56 (FASAB56), which came into force on October 4th, 2018, determined that national security concerns now override the need for public financial transparency.

What this means is that FASAB56 allows federal entities to manipulate data and even omit spending altogether when reporting on the grounds of national security. This as the aforementioned article states, raises the following questions:

Who counts as a federal reporting entity? When and how can these entities conceal or remove financial information from their reports? What information can be removed? When does something count as confidential, and who makes that determination?

FASAB 56 also allows departments within government to change their reports in ways that don’t reflect their actual spending, under the guise of the very grey area of how information is classified and how such information is handled with respect to unclassified reports. FASAB 56 also undermines the reliability of government accounting standards and financial statements to such a degree, that from a public perspective they become worthless. It also allows the addition of misleading information and information to be omitted on spurious grounds. This lack of transparency is staggering, open to potentially serious abuse and was approved by the Trump administration.

In a broader context, this missing minimum $21tn is indicative of the US printing dollars Zimbabwean style and that there is actually tens of trillions more dollars in the system than conventional wisdom understands. These dollars are going eventually to come home which is going to cause rampant hyper-inflation. The consequences for the American people is self-evident, economically, socially and politically. It is also why the principal reason why the world is de-dollarising because they have realised that the US has been partaking in this reckless debasement of the dollar.

THE BIGGEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN HISTORY – AS THE BULL DIES

By Egon von Greyerz
April 20, 2022

[goldswitzerland.com]

@Krunoslav It is much more complicated, yes. But only only made so on purpose.

@FrankZeleniuk " It is much more complicated, yes. But only only made so on purpose. "

I agree, as they say, they muddy the water to hide how deep it is and catch the fish easier.

@Krunoslav Very interesting data. Most notably, that national security has now overridden the necessity for financial disclosure.

What this means is that FASAB56 allows federal entities to manipulate data and even omit spending altogether when reporting on the grounds of national security.

They have basically bankrupt all nations and now want to take full control over the global economy by instituting MMT.

Thank you for the correction, I appreciate it. This time I run it trough some AI assisted grammar and spell checking tools. You are correct.

Cheers!

"Krunoslav, I am not (any longer) a republican. But, I think it is unfair to lump them into the same category as the Demos when talking about corruption. Yeah, there is corruption in the GOP -- one of the reasons why I left. But, the DNC is way past that."

I would agree that DNC is trying to cater to the more radical base and has dragged whole of political scene to the more extreme left for a long time now.

Some says about American politics that DNC is the corrupt one, and GOP is the stupid one. Its just a stereotype. But there is some truth to it.

Even if we pretend corruption is not the issue, lets look at the policies. Especially after early 1970's onward.

The forign policy has changed very little and closer we got to present day, the more unified both parties are about forign policy. No doubt the neocons and neoliberals have same aspirations about globalism with perhaps slightly different ideas of how to achieve it and neconons tend to think of globalism with the US hegemony at the center of it.

Whatever one might think of domestic policies, when it comes to forign policy, neocnons and neoliberals since the 1970's always get their way inside the halls of Washington.

The corruption is so systemic that any outsider, and last one was Trump, has very little chance of operating on his own. And most that operate there are usually compromised, like the Biden crime family.

Look at the average age of career politicians in office in both parties. Does that look like a system where people are promoted on metric, competence or doing what is good for the country or because the system rewards career politicians and machievelian types.

Mitch McConnell? The Ultimate Swamp creature on one side and people like Lindsey Ghram, John McCain, Mike Pompeo, Mike Rubio, Ted Cruz, all either social interest guys or die hard neocons. Corrupt to the core. Than there are RINOS. (Republican In Name Only). Jabs, lockdowns, money printing, feeding Military Industrial complex etc. I don't see much attempts to fight back than , and most supported it. Nothing was done about big tech , nothing was done about the riots of 2020, nothing was done about big pharma, nothing was done about money printing, nothing was done about Afghanistan, and all were for Ukraine war. Trump as an ousider, was manipulated by the neconons and he did everything they told him. I mean he got Mike Pompeo as his guy. Need I say more.

I don't need to talk about DNC which is in some ways even worse, but I think the American voters were presented with an illusion of choice. Whoever was president, republican or democrat, many of the key problems in America only continued.

I think that is because the system got so corrupted with all the lobbying, revolving doors , campaign contributions etc.

Also why did Republicans allow same sex marriage. Abortion? Attack on nuclear family? Seems to me that all the career politicians in GOP were happy to keep the corruption in status que and allow the DNC to dictate the issues of debate and slowly move the republican party more and more to the left until values that were critical for republican voters and health on nation have been all but abandoned in favor of not rocking the both, virtue signaling and getting those fat checks in the mail from the campaign doners , special interest groups and military industrial complex..

I mean when democrats don't get their way they will do anything for power. When republicans don't get their way, they just accept it. And the nation moves more and more left.

I mean even Trump printed more money than Obama, pretending economy was doing good. Yeah stocks and bubble economy, not real one. And he didn't lower taxes he raised them by inflation. Inflation is just taxation with no legislation. He pushed for jabs, the neocons he surrounded himself manipulated him and did what they wanted. And while America was in desporate need of him doing something or anyone in Republican party about the riots, the whole BLM riots , Trump chicken out. And rest of the GOP were happy to keep the status que.

As for presidents other than Trump, with the exception of maybe Reagan, you had George Bushes and they are the same as Clintons and Bidens. Certianly the forign policy did not change for the better.

Anyway, in my research since the 1970's and Jimmy Carter US presidency is virtually irrelevant. Third parties run the show and presidents are just there to give an illusion of choice to the voters. It was not always that way, but since Jimmy Carter , its hardly much difference. Reagan and Trump were a little bit better, but core problems did not change under them. From money printing to forign policy campaigns.

I think that DNC is lost cause and some of the grass root up and commers in GOP might have something to offer, but the upper old bunch of RINOS in GOP is just as bad as DNC. They are the controlled opposition there to prevent the regime being flanked.

"Both parties need to be done away with and replaced. But, if the enemies of the republic are not first gotten rid of in the DNC nothing good will result regardless of whatever else is done . Almost none of them can be allowed anyway near any reformation. They will taint it."

I agree. DNC is so rotten to the core that there can be no saving it, and voting cannot resolve it, since they care only about power and will do anything even start civil war to get it.