LINK Common Sense Shows COVID-19 To Be Less Fatal Than Predicted
By using the right figures, you can make the mortality rate look as bad as you want. That is what has been done, causing overreaction to the point of panic! In the below article "two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math".
Is coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?
By Andrea Widburg March 26, 2020
Coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there and he’ll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.
Media reports have told us that coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that’s small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Spanish Influenza), it’s a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to America from turn into a viral slaughterhouse.
But that might not be what's happening.
At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we’re using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that coronavirus’s mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.
According to the doctors, “The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.” When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died), we’re using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.
The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus. Ideally, we’d already be testing everyone with an antibody test, which would allow us to know how many have already caught this new virus and recovered without incident. However, while antibody tests are in the pipeline, they’re not there yet.
Thankfully, there is information that helps us estimate the contagion factor. In Italy, the scariest country of them all, the math says that, while Italy is being slammed by the speed of the coronavirus’s spread, the ultimate mortality rate won’t be as devastating as the early numbers predict:
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
The doctors do the same calculation for other defined populations, such as planes that evacuated U.S. citizens from Wuhan (all the passengers were tested), Iceland’s population, and NBA players. In the case of the Wuhan evacuees, only 0.9% of the Wuhan travelers tested positive. Extrapolating that data out to Wuhan as a whole would mean that 178,000 Wuhan residents were probably infected, a number 30 times greater than the number China identified as having the virus. Accepting as true China’s claim that only 3,287 people died, the real mortality rate would be 1.85% -- which is still a high mortality rate, but less than the original 4% claimed.
Considering that, in December and January, there was substantial and steady traffic between Wuhan and the U.S., the doctors believe that coronavirus’s high infection rate means that some six million Americans may have been infected by March 9. As of March 23, though, only 499 Americans had died from coronavirus.
The professors point out that this is a mortality rate of only 0.01%, which is one-tenth of the annual flu mortality rate of 0.1%. If more people are infected than with the flu, but only 1/10 the number of people die . . . well, it’s not Armageddon. (For more “not Armageddon” info, check out John Hinderaker’s post about virus fatalities.)
Drs. Bendavid and Bhattacharya suggest that the most sensible plan is to focus on vulnerable populations: the elderly and the sick, whether in hospitals, nursing homes, or their own homes. This means isolating them and, because of the virus’s rapid spread, temporarily reallocating hospital resources, such as elective procedures.
The doctors close by warning that a universal quarantine, with its massive impact on the economy and, as a byproduct, on Americans’ physical and mental well-being, may well be overkill and must, therefore, be reevaluated.
It’s a great article with more information than I’ve given here. If you have access to The Wall Street Journal, try to read what the good doctors have to say.
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We are being reengineered as a Global Society.
DonProvolone
Level 7
Mar 26, 2020
2
MAGA & BRexit were parallel movements against globalism. The EU and other such organizations are beginning to fall apart as citizens open their eyes to the benefits of patriotism toward one's own country. Trump's speech at the UN shocked many, but possibly started some thinking. And who knows, maybe others are also considering moves against globalism.
Nothing like a good crisis, manufactured or otherwise, to make folks (sheep mainly) change (or be forced/coerced into changing) their stands "For the good of all..."
Simply wrong.
Right now, there are 503,274 known cases of Covid 19. There have been 22,342 deaths. [worldometers.info]
That is a death rate among known victims of 4.4%
So, let's say, just for the sake of argument, that only one half of cases have been diagnosed. That would make the death rate 2.2% among all cases. So let's round that down to 2%............about what was predicted.
Remember that more of those infected are going to die.
Without the current precautions, models showed the probable infection rate to be between 30% and 70%.
So let's go with the lowest number....30%. That would mean 98.1 million US cases.
That(at 2% fatality) would mean 1.9 million dead in the USA.
No, this is not a false panic.
Colpy
Level 7
Mar 26, 2020
2
Where did you hear that half of the infected will die??
Not true so far!!!!!
In fact the stats say may be 20% will die, and I think that is a high estimate!!! THEY don't even know how many have recovered without medical involvement!!!!!
@BobCoffey1 Sonny, you haven't the brains required to even know what is real and what is fake.
Tell me, why has Spain converted an ice skating rink into a morgue? Why has the Spanish Army, deployed to helpdo disinfecting duties at medical facilities, found old folks' homes abandoned by staff, with dead people left in their beds? Are all those dead people faking, or are they just delusional?
There's a thousand other questions one could ask, but I do not want to overtax your limited cognitive abilities.
Look around. There is a world outside of the USA. And it indicates where we are going.
The problem here is mostly with "models" you're using. These "models" are similar to global warming alarmist "models" used to show increase in temperature of earth's atmosphere which will necessarily lead to the end of the world in 10 years. BAAAAAAAAAD science and manipulation of data!
Among other things, have you missed the COVID-19 data from China? 81,285 cases with only 3287 deaths. And they are 92% recovered! We responded sooner and have much better medical systems. It is unlikely we'll have stats as bad as theirs even. If we do, the numbers (theirs and/or ours) should be questioned.
When this is all said and done (let's say this time next year), I hope all will be able to learn from it not to cherry pick data that only furthers an agenda. The agenda here has been to create panic and cause a severe downturn in a booming economy that has America surging beyond China and the rest of the world. An extremely strong America is bad for globalists. Nothing else has worked to hurt Trump and America to this point in his Presidency, not even the impeachment. This was the next best thing and it caught on.
You need to comb thru data and sources, look at the big picture, compare and contrast realistic, rational data, while figuring in the unknown (plus or minus). Then there's the truth that what is possible is not generally probable!
Finally, if it comes from the MSM and/or Democrats (or the leftists/liberals/progressives) or if they support it, it has NOOOOOO credibility whatsoever! Your odds for being right are best if you ALWAYS bet against what they say or what they want!
@BobCoffey1 Ahhh....Spain is not a socialist country.
Not even close.
@Serg97, @BobCoffey1 "The economy of Spain is the world's thirteenth-largest by nominal GDP as well as one of the largest in the world by purchasing power parity. The country is a member of the European Union, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Trade Organization. Spain has a capitalist mixed economy. " [en.wikipedia.org]
The relevant part: "....Spain has a capitalist mixed economy".
NOT socialist.
Are you ever correct about anything?
@BobCoffey1 Sonny, every modern capitalist country has elements of social care, which is what you like to call (incorrectly) "socialism". That includes the United States of America.
@Clarken I agree about climate change models. I mean, they have never even come close to being correct. I'm old enough to remember the 70s, when they were predicting a new ice age..........and since 1993 we've been treated to dozens of CC models, all of which proved highly inaccurate, thus justifying our scorn.
Not so with Covid 19. We have not had enough time to validate (or not) the models. I do not believe there is a political agenda on this issue. I mean, think about it. What gov't destroys their own economy? For any reason?
As for China, I don't believe a word coming out of that place. They are probably lying about the dead.
And the Democrats? I wouldn't trust them much more than the Chinese (I'm Canadian). But the Republicans are also pushing precaution and shut down, although Trump seems to be in mild denial.
"What gov't destroys their own economy?" The answer is the Democrats of the US. It is not overstated or a conspiracy theory to say that the Democrats HATE Trump so much that they NEED the economy to fail for them to get rid of him and regain control themselves. ("The ends justify the means" and "never let a crisis go to waste." ) There is NO OTHER WAY for them to win the White House, much less retain the House of Representatives and retake the Senate. The Democrats have tried everything - they are absolutely DESPERATE! And time is running out. Our elections are coming up in November and ALL SIGNS are that Trump will win in a landslide.
Yes, Trump and "the Republicans are also pushing precaution and shut down." Yes "Trump seems to be in mild denial." 1st, he doesn't deny that COVID-19 will kill people. What he denies is that it will be equal to the death count that comes every year with the common flu - though NO ONE ever suggests these shut down measures with it.
So why have Trump & the Republicans gone along with all the precautions & shut down? Have you ever heard of CYA?! They have no doubt that the left wing will sue, blaming them for any & all cases and/or deaths if Trump & the Republicans just let this ride out like the common flu or one of the Coronaviruses of the past (SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc - none of which caused shut downs weather or not the mortality rate was actually higher than than COVID-19.).
The Democrats and media have already blamed Trump and have said he should be prosecuted for murder. And if you remember, they also said that Trump was causing a nuclear war with North Korea because of his strong/mean talk with "Rocket Man". And we were supposed to have WWIII because he authorized the drone kill of the Iranian Commander Soleimani inside of Iraq. Literally every time we turn around, the Democrats have a new conspiracy theory suggestion we need to impeach Trump.
But you didn't ask why the world has reacted so severely, if this was a conspiracy within the US. Simply because the globalists (regardless of country) work together and play off each other. We don't know how the US influenced other countries, but you can bet it was signifantly. America is the world's leader - where they lead, the world follows. If we show panic, so do they. If we shut down international travel, so will they. We feed off of them (driven by our left-wing Socialists, Democrats, Progressives, Globalists) and they feed off of us. In this case, it turned into a snow-ball (in the USAF we called it a self-licking ice cream cone), fed by poorly analyzed data, bad models, genocidal predictions, and yes, POLITICS.
Do you not also remember just a VERY short time ago that the Democrats (and their globalist cohorts) pushed for open borders? There is NO WAY the US economy could survive the strain of millions upon millions flooding in. They are a complete drain on our resources - our economy, our safety and security). But it gets the Democrats more voters, when their party is suffering a mass exodus and must rebuilt. Have you heard of BLexit (Black Exit) and #WalkAway? The Dems have burned their bridges with law enforcement (ICE, Customs, Border Patrol, Police, Military), coal miners, farmers, Christians, many Jews, many Women, pro-life Democrats, and the list goes on and on. Yes, the are DESPERATE enough to destroy our economy to get back CONTROL!
@Clarken Well, the Democrats are idiots. I'm no fan of Trump, but were I an American, I'd vote for him in November simply because the alternative is absolutely crazy. And it appears Trump's approval rate is going up. I think he is going to win.
That said, here's an article you should read. The Covid 19 virus has a contagion rate at least double that of the flu, and a fatality rate at least 10 times that of the flu, and probably over 20 times the rate.
Start running the numbers, and it gets scary quickly.
I believe you are reading that article wrong or reading into it. Yes, it says the Covid-19 R0 is twice that of the common flu. That means that each person that contracts it may infect twice as many other people than they would if they had the common flu. But that doesn't mean that more people will get COVID-19 than get the common flu. You have to have a higher base number (to begin with) to end up with more cases thru the higher R0. Those numbers simply are not there. And are unlikely to be.
Considering the above, having sooooooo many less that catch COVID-19, even with a higher mortality rate, you'll still have MANY LESS dying. The article explicitly compares the flu (38 million cases in the US alone this year and 23,000 deaths) to COVID-19 numbers. Let me change out the article's worldwide COVID-19 numbers with the US numbers (to be less confusing - more apples to apples). There are 85,762 cases and 1306 deaths so far related to COVID-19 in the US. So 38million compared to 86thousand; and 23thousand compared to 1306. Some how it doesn't look like COVID-19 is the GIANT they're making it out to be when compared to the regular flu. The numbers just don't show that no matter how you look at them - unless you start throwing in POSSIBILITIES that may or may not happen with little proof that the will happen.
I actually think it shows a much different picture than you're interpreting it to show. It just doesn't come across as hopeless and horrifying as you're saying. In fact, I think it backs up the idea that this will NOT be nearly as bad as the common flu. What is scary is that there are yet a number of unknowns. And generally speaking, the outcome is seldom as terrible as our imaginations/emotions expect them to be. As FDR said "we have nothing to fear but fear itself." Responding to a worst case scenario ("models" ) can cause (is causing) more harm than taking it as it comes and making necessary adjustments along the way.
Okay, now that I read your article (and it was pretty good). Here's one for you to read - not too long. [realclearpolitics.com]
Also, be sure to read the post I tagged you with: [americanthinker.com]
@Clarken "I believe you are reading that article wrong or reading into it. Yes, it says the Covid-19 R0 is twice that of the common flu. That means that each person that contracts it may infect twice as many other people than they would if they had the common flu. But that doesn't mean that more people will get COVID-19 than get the common flu. You have to have a higher base number (to begin with) to end up with more cases thru the higher R0. Those numbers simply are not there. And are unlikely to be."
Good points all. These are things we will not know until the first round of this thing has run its course. But, you must admit, the measures taken so far will limit the spread.
As for the rest, as I said, the forecast infection rate without the current measures was 30% to 70%..............that is a lot more than 38 million......and with a higher death toll, well the conclusion is obvious. But the original point still stands. You could be right. We simply don't know enough yet.
We'll see. Evidence from Italy and Spain is not encouraging.
Cool. I like American Thinker.
@BobCoffey1 You have yet to present any facts and just have insults to throw around. Any facts there at all?
Do You know one person who's got the virus?
@BobCoffey1, Aww Bob, Is all the world wrong except you? Do you get called those feeble attempt at insults you throw around in your real life, thinking it adds gravitas to your posts. Take out the feeble attempt at insult from your post and you have very little to say.
@TraianDicu Yes, me. I've been really ill for 5 days, got tested yesterday. I've been self isolating for 11 days so far.
@TraianDicu Not YET.
@BobCoffey1 In my initial post here, 3 days ago, I said without isolation precautions, the death toll could be 1.9 million Americans. You (and others) reached amazing levels of outrage at the suggestion, some suggesting it was all a plot by the Democrats.
Well, I just watched Trump and two of his expert advisors announce the isolation measures are now extended to April 30, and that without them between 1.6 million and 2.2 million people would die.
Seems I hit the bullseye.
@BobCoffey1 This was only a couple of hours ago. Watch the news.
@BobCoffey1 Your ability to adjust reality to fit your delusions is frankly mind-boggling.
Watch it.
If you don't have much time, go to 34:00 and watch for three minutes.
Then think about your actions.
You just ain't all that bright, are ya?
Either the 200,000 deaths are with social distancing and the other precautionary measures, or that was the old model.........
The 1.6 to 2.2 million are without precautionary measures, and are the latest figures.
AND you called me a liar that Trump was quoting those figures, and you were, as always, WRONG.
Just as I have been saying!! My uneducated deduction appears to being confirmed!!!
Maybe, what we really need is some common sense!!!
This whole thing makes me wonder, what is REALLY going on and WHY!!! This was no accident!!!!!
My suspicious mind at work again!!!!!!!!!!!!
Serg97
Level 8
Mar 26, 2020
3
@BobCoffey1 Not all of us are Fearful Cowards!!!! That is what really scares them!!!!!!!!!
@BobCoffey1 The SHEEPEOPLE are still out there!! With any luck, this will wake some of them up!!!!!!
@BobCoffey1 Starting to look that way!! The brits wanted to raise our taxes and take our guns, sound familiar???
We shot them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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