This is from Zmans blog and part of why Styx prediction of an easy Trump victory or landslide seems so off, and Ramzpauls prediction seems so much closer.
"Whether or not this works is hard to know. In 2004, the goal was to get something close to 60% of the white vote. Bush did reasonably well with Hispanics and blacks were not angry about anything in particular. Whites were 77% of the vote, so getting in the high fifties was the goal. Given the partisanship in states in the Northeast, losing those white votes was meaningless unless it hurt with white votes in competitive states. Bush got 58% of the white vote and enough Hispanic support to win.
In 2020, Trump will need to get something closer to 70% of the white vote. That’s due to the declining white share and the fact blacks are super-angry now. Despite his foot-washing for four years, they still think he is an orange supremacist and horrible racist. What does not get discussed in public, but has surely been discussed in private, is the math of this election. In 2016, whites made up 70% of the vote. In 2020 it will be 65%. The actuarial tables are working against Trump and the GOP."
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.Biden 51 Trump 47 Other 2
Electoral College too close to call, depending on just how effective we are in countering Enemy cheating in swing state big cities (Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit)
However, imagine Trump winning reelection with 47% of the popular vote thanks to the racist Electoral College. That may spur our Enemies to understand that splitting up the country is the only way forward; something we should already know.
Afterthought
Level 7
July 15, 2020
0
It's come to the point where I sort of tune out Styx in Happy Homelands now. I think Styx means well, but he's too disconnected from reality in a Dutch whitopia thousands of miles away from America. And 93% white Vermont is an outlier in the USSA. He may actually see more nonwhites in Amsterdam than back home!
I recall Styx saying something about a future Hispanic turn to the Right (in other words, what the GOP has been hoping for years), but even if he were right, that shift isn't going to happen in time to save Trump.
I stopped reading Z a while back because I thought he was too kind to Trump. But lately I've been reading his current columns while also reading backwards in his archives to see what I missed out on. Z's stance on Trump has changed over time. Maybe Styx's will too, but coping sells.
AMRX
Level 5
July 15, 2020
2
I watched a recent homelands where Ram tried slightly to push him on the civnatism noting that culture and ethnicity are heavily tied (if not inextricably at large scales). Styx just completely misunderstood the question and started rambling civnat talking points and Ram dropped the issue abruptly.
I can't be the only one who saw that happen. Homelands Summertime around 44:20 onward.
Styx has lived in white ethnostate for so long that he has no fucking clue how miserable it is living around other races when you're poor and actually have to deal with the problems on the ground.
Yeah I get you were poor, but I'm guessing you weren't poor near a mexican or black neighborhood. I bet you didn't have to worry about getting the shit kicked out of your scrawny ass for being white and with no one to back you up cause whites are the only rabid individualists on earth.
Tell you what, we can go find every 3rd world shitwit on the planet willing to disown communism and dump them in Vermont. Let's see how that goes.
What you don't fucking understand is that these people don't like you because you are no them. It doesn't matter what you believe. You don't look like them. You don't talk like them. You're the outsider and they will fuck you up and make your life worse for no reason other than you are the out group.
Whites not yet will vote 70 percent GOP either. Republicans are too for the rich and Mitch Mcconell open borders types, and their against Healthcare and anything helping out middle class folks. 55 to 60 percent of the most of the White vote they will get. Maybe later this decade or early next they can get more, but not now.
Robert100
Level 7
July 15, 2020
1
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