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Uh oh! Some serious signs and rumors of political instability in China.
Tell us what you think this might mean around the globe and in particular USA, NATO, Japan, Pacific Rim...

iThink 9 Sep 25
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No Maoist will agree, but I think Mao proved conclusively that the Communist/Socialist economic model is unsustainable. The Soviet model also proved that. Mao's successors gradually let capitalism back in around the edges, so the CCP could ignore it, and that has allowed China to grow slowly, but not robustly, because hybrid capitalism in China is risky. Only the most daring went for the opportunity, and some of them were purged - especially lately under Xi.

COVID has been a disaster for China economically and culturally. The CCP felt they had to crackdown on the population because the CCP irrationally feared COVID, just as in the US. The collapse of the economy in China was far worse than in the US. And its population is now demoralized by the deaths of those and their families questioning the crackdown. It is getting tougher to keep the population focused on making it all the fault of the US, when the crackdown is in their face.

Complicating China's economic problems are the World energy shortages, and their recent huge expenditures on military posturing. The more they try to compensate for their sense of vulnerability right now in the World, and the more bellicose they become, it is a sign that they are no longer confident in simply and quietly projecting power.

As power shifts in China, much like the US with a very weak leader who is unpredictable and therefore dangerous, China finds itself of two minds and is likely to express itself ambivalently.

Countries doing business with China should see this as an opportunity to quietly back away from China, and make it more difficult for China's influence to operate within their sovereign nations.

I would bet the guys rubbing elbows with Obiden doesn’t want this guy being so chummy with Putin and wants him out. Didn’t he play golf with the Donald a few times?

@FEWI Some folks may not understand that generals trying to destroy each other's armies have sometimes been friends throughout history. The same is true of Leadership. Those intelligent enough to understand sophisticated relationships and use their skills to evaluate what people are likely to do, know when they are in good company, regardless of the political stripes of their opposition. The astute could easily read that Obama was disgusted by his own Vice President. And the astute can easily discern that Trump is so effective at reading the room that he is utterly unintimidated by anyone.

The very simple minded may read something into who is standing next to whom in a photo or playing golf, but I guarantee that the astute will not be regarding that as significant.

As to your point that external forces may be operative in China, it is unlikely. And the CCP is a big bureaucracy that ultimately directs the path China takes. Most of the CCP is likely to align themselves with Putin, both as a Northern neighbor with whom friendly relations are preferable, and as someone more philosophically aligned than China's "fall guy," the US.

@TimTuolomne Sort of like the Republicans are always commenting on how they so deeply respect these evil democrats while they are trying to destroy our way of life.

@FEWI Those focused on defending the Constitution tend to disinterested in the drama of politics and are likely to be insufficiently critical of Democrats dirty tricks. They also will not be making the Hillary mistake of calling half the voters "despicable." However, I agree with you that they should be more concerned about the danger Democrats dirty tricks are to the Constitution.

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