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Latest U.S., Chinese tariff hikes take effect in trade war

Tariffs now hit consumer goods. How will this play out during the holiday season? Looks like Trump was strategic in that many of the tariffs on consumer goods won't go into effect until 12/15 to minimize the impact.

But studies estimating that tariffs will cost the average household $1k annually, and that was before more recent tariffs were reported, are going to slow consumer spending.

The cycle toward recession is well under way.

ObiRonMoldy 7 Sep 1

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Could be. But it also could be that the reduction in taxes could offset the impact.


A recession is inevitable and I’d like to think the effects would be minimal due to the new trade deals worked out with Japan, Europe and Mexico.

@ObiRonMoldy yeah for sure. I’m not an economist, but when an economy has a prolonged period of growth then there certainly has to be a plateau or a recession to allow the markets to readjust. It should just be expected and planned for.


Recession generally occur when the public loses faith in the market. I remember when I was a kid about 10 yoa, and people talked about "Jap Crap" and would not buy things made in Japan. This was because most of the parents grew up with Pearl Harbor and the atrocities of WWII.
Another thing is, I also remember that a refrigerator "made in America" would last at least 30 years. I can not think of any appliance now that last more than ten years now.
Maybe getting back to "Made in America" would save money over the long haul.
And that is the other side of the coin!!!!!

@ObiRonMoldy Isn't it kind of sad that as Americans we no long try to be the best and make the best.
Ya, I know that kind of thinking is no longer Politically Correct!!!!
I miss the days when being RIGHT was more important than being PC!!!!!!!!!


Or ... people will wise up and stop buying Chinese Made ... or products made Primarily with Chinese Materials and Parts.
We did quite well without China and its “goods” for a very long time.
Granted, now most people are like “junk” junkies and simply have to have the latest piece of junk that China is making.
It’s like an addiction ... STUFF ...
It’s time to Kick the Habit ...
Maybe folks will go back to simpler but higher quality gifts and remember what Christmas is actually about ...
Maybe people will take a moment to contemplate whether they REALLY Want to Buy that gizmo labeled “Made in China”
It’s funny but in a time when the Leftists and EcoNuts can ban plastic straws, decry meat, ban all sorts of other things ... they are freaking out over their Made in China crap ... how about we have a couple years where “Made in China” simply isn’t “Stylish” ... simply isn’t “Cool” ...


You make a serious blunder when you project future events based on current circumstances, particularly when those circumstances are the result of Trump’s intentional disruption.

There was really only one calculation to work through: either continue with the status quo... or not. Trump’s approach is to throw big rocks onto the placid surface of the status quo until all prior assumptions are wrecked. Only then can something new emerge.

Don’t assume China can withstand the economic pressure of a trade war. Their economy’s a mess. Exports are crucial. If Trump manages to isolate them with a series of trade deals like the one with Japan, the status quo would be doomed

I have to differ. Reading the past takes into account none of the disruptions that have defined political and technological development. Nor could it. Predicting the future based on the present is why Bill Gates dismissed the internet in his 1995 book “The Road Ahead.” It’s why we were taken by surprise when the Iron Curtain crumbled. It’s why everyone assumed Trump would burn out long before the primaries were over, why the same forecasters assumed a Hillary landslide. The recording industry was caught flat-footed by the mp3/iTunes/iPod/iTunes Store vector that totally transformed the industry and listening habits everywhere.

Reading past patterns is useful from a macro standpoint, but it’s the small micro transformations that cannot be predicted, any one of which could branch out into unexpected consequences. Otherwise Technical Analysis would make millionaires of every chart trader. That’s why speculative fiction has such a short shelf-life.

I think we’re not so far apart. As you state, Trump’s decision to engage China was both needed and long overdue. I would suggest that he indeed looked to the past for guidance, and did not like the future it suggested, assuming nothing changed. He changed it.

He’s been taking risks his entire career. That’s the thing about risk: it never comes with a guarantee. I think he’s willing to take risks, to the point of saying, “Well heck... let’s just see what happens if I do this.”

See. What’d I tell you. We’re on the same page.

There are many variables at the moment: Brexit, Hong Kong, to say nothing of impending chaos at home if Ruth Bader Ginsberg leaves the court, and indictments actually start coming down. I seriously think Trump draws energy out of chaos. Maybe he’s our first quantum president. But it’s hell on anyone trying to track him.

One man’s personality trait is another’s disorder.


so - hands off China then? is that what you prefer? Don't rock the boat - let China continue with their robbing USA blind ways?
If Trumps plan would only cost $1k annually for the average American household I say that is a very small price to pay.

Upon close and honest examination I believe you'll find the "average American household" does a LOT more than $1k in discretionary spending annually...think about it - as I said "honest" examination of it.

Discretionary spending would be any/all money NOT spent on food, housing,; basic necessities. So that would be things like cable tv and internet services, cell phones and other electronic gadgets and devices; eating out; extra cars and related expenses to that; activities like music, dance, sports - lessons, uniforms and other special requirements for participation in those things; out to the movies, football baseball games, basketball games...extraneous items of clothing like football jerseys and such; vacation trips and related expenditures...birthday and christmas and other "special" days spending...

Fact is the "average american household" does NOT think of these things as discretionary but they are. The moment I hear someone say the words "can't afford" I start looking around at things like stylized haircuts and fingernails, tattoos, video games, cigarettes and other tobacco products, "recreational drugs", boats, motorcycles, televisions in every room of the house, pricey bicycles, trendy stuff everywhere... - DISCRETIONARY SPENDING represented in every household across the land.

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