Observations, Facts and information on the CoVid-19 Outbreak - Attempts at being a voice of reason.

Ok, So after staying as calm and as quite as i can I now feel the need to bring a voice of reason to the table. I have received this morning 5 emails on Covid-19 all contradict, and most have inaccuracies. and this motivates me to try to set the record Straight.

Disclaimer:I an not an Immunologist, But I am a qualified Ambulance Officer, and a scientist. and at a time where actual "FACTS" are hard to find. Here is my very best study, and feedback based on information from as much of the world as I can, Including contacts with Patients in South Korea, and based on recent results of Studies by the Otago university school of medial health. The situation is still very fluid, and Viruses can change and mutate, But this is the best information we have today.

1. Who is the disease killing ??
Early findings from researchers racing to understand the new coronavirus sweeping the world suggest that the elderly and those who already have other illnesses are at comparatively greater risk of dying from the disease.

Conditions thought to heighten the risk for people who get Covid-19 include heart and lung disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and cancer.

A report from a World Health Organisation-China joint mission looked at nearly 56,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid-19 up to February 20 in China.

Of those people, 2114 had died, giving what the report called a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 3.8 per cent.

About 80 per cent of the patients had a mild to moderate case of the disease, while nearly 14 per cent had a severe case.

Those aged over 80 had a CFR of 21.9 per cent. The CFR among those patients with no other illnesses (comorbid conditions) was 1.4 per cent, while it was 13.2 per cent for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2 per cent for diabetes, 8.4 per cent for hypertension, 8 per cent for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6 per cent for cancer.

The joint mission report noted that the CFR had declined markedly through the outbreak. "The standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak," it said.

2. Why is Italy getting Hit so badly?

Theories about why Italy has been so hard hit include the average age of its population, which is the oldest in Europe. Another is air pollution in the worst affected northern part of the country, which has been linked to viral infection and pneumonia.

Work published online by The Lancet about a week ago reported that of the 827 deaths in Italy up to March 11, 42 per cent were aged 80-89, 32 per cent were aged 70-79, 8 per cent were 60-69, and 3 per cent were 50-59.

The case fatality rate for those 80 and over was nearly 15 per cent. Among patients with no other illnesses (comorbid conditions) the rate was 0.9 per cent, while it was 10.5 per cent for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3 per cent for diabetes, 6.3 per cent for chronic respiratory disease, 6 per cent for hypertension, and 5.6 per cent for cancer.
The case fatality rate is a slippery figure. It could be lower than the numbers being tentatively produced now if many cases are so mild - or symptoms are even non-existent - that the people infected never went to a doctor. Pushing the other way, some of those whose cases were confirmed in a study, could die after the report is produced.

3. Will slowing the spread mean more people live?

This is very difficult to answer - Maybe Maybe not. The disease, left unchecked, will kill the old and frail. It will not kill the young, and is not severed for most healthy persons.

The goal of slowing the disease is to allow the health system to support more persons, but as there is not treatment, Just supportive care, this only means we delay the inevitable in most cases, But there are those who can recover if supported, and this may help more of them recover naturally. If these beds are not available, then they may not make it, so possibly

4. Won't dragging it out, make things worse?

In economic term yes, in human terms ... Hard to say. A short panic is recoverable, but as this drags into years, recovery gets harder, and the economic costs may be much worse than most think. As the economic downturn hits, and isolation make behavior change, the way people change can become unpredictable. China severe outbreak resulted in high human cost, but the economic situation was minimized by a short shutdown, and then recovery.

In most cases tragedy brings out the best in people, But as tragedy goes on, the change in noticeable, and despair and metal strain can result in increased aggression and major increases in mental health problems, Isolation and reduce healthcare availability may result in things getting Much Much worse. Cities with high populations will be the worst affected. Up to 3 months - all good 6 months . getting serious 9-12 month is uncharted territory.

5. Have I got COvid-19 or just a normal flu?

Actually Normal flu symptoms are worse the CoVid-19 Many persons reporting symptoms are really flu. The biggest tell tale is a runny nose. If you have a runny nose its NOT CoVid-19 its a flu or cold. covid is high temp over 38.5C (over 101.3F) dry cough and breathing difficulty. If breathing is very difficult seek medical assistance CPAP machines or humidifiers can help

For 85% of the population, you will only get flu like symptoms fell bad, then recover, Some have shown non (ZERO .. 0) symptoms) , other will show symptoms, and some will get very serious. You need to be ready to take care of yourself. You need to decide if you need help - Medical centers can be infection site, so avoid if you don't need to be there - If you suspect you have it, ask to be seen or tested in a car park

6. What can I do if I have it?

Hydrate - in a word drink lots of fluids. in fact drinking lots of fluids can also help reduce the risk of contagion, as the virus in the mouth takes time to enter the airway, if you swallow it the stomach acids will kill it. if you're peeing a lot, and good clear fluid, Its a good thing. If your urine is dark - Drink more fluids - all fluid - even coffee is good Just drink fluids (Booze not so good for body - but see below) - actually don't drink hand sanatizer either.

Paracetamol will help with fever, Ibuprofen will not help, and "May even" make it worse - Avoid anti-inflaaitories if you are sick, unless under medical advise. ... Just to be sure. Antibiotics will not help, unless you have a secondary infection. We mostly treat the symptoms, your body will eventually kill the virus, or it will kill you. Sorry.

Maintain social contacts - Ok so you can't meet face to face, But phone calls, and social media will help. we are creatures who need contacts - mostly - keep as much of your normal routine as you can

Treat yourself - Feel free to binge watch TV, eat chocolate and have fun while you are sick - Some food is Good for the body, some is good for the soul - you know your routines and what makes you happy - you need some happiness.

Laugh - Make fun of the virus, and keep a level of humor - Dr Patch Adams knew how to laugh, and taught others - So let yourself laugh.

7. Can I avoid getting it?

Probably not - but you can delay getting it, Hand washing, avoiding people (no public transport) 2 meter spacing (droplets travel less than 1 meter) will all help - Most the advice here is good, Garlic won't help (Except maybe to keep people away from you) but it won't hurt your immune system, so if you like it eat it (on pizza with cheese for me please)

but this virus will not die out, It will be here for the rest of our lives, Like SARS. MERS, Influenze and the common cold - all are coronaviruses. and all keep coming back year after year - So will this. Accept the new norm, you will get it, recover and become immune. Its life on this planet and its life while we have our biology.

If you delay it, there may be a vaccine, so if you get the flu vaccine every year, then you might want to wait, If you avoid vaccines unless needed then maybe you will be better getting it early, shop before the rush

Ok that's it for now, and its the best advice we have, and what we know as far as I can tell.

I am no expert butt will answer any questions if I can, as honestly as I can - including admitting how much I don't know - especially economic aspects or what happens in the next 2 years (sorry Crystal ball is on strike)

But Fear is more dangerous right now than the facts or the disease, as it is today, Unless you are in a risk category.

Take care - Be well and be sensible. - Lets revisit how we handled it in a year - Laugh love and live - and don't be afraid to talk to others. - Be kind, and support each other.

Here if you feel like a chat