Were the Covid-19 lockdowns a mistake? Andrew I. Friedson says they flattened the curve. Lyman Stone disagrees...
[reason.com]
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They "flattened the curve" eh? No. With an R-nought of 5.7 in 2.5 days, the whole World was exposed in 5 weeks - about a month before China admitted it existed. The latency is much longer than most viruses, so we still have cases. And if you look at the data of deaths, they are steady and about 10 times lower than nominal models. So social distancing and masks started long after the horses were out of the barn. Don't let politicians try to take credit for it. And demand that they end all lockdown's NOW.
TimTuolomne
Level 9
May 8, 2020
1
Stone was right.
@SpikeTalon. Sorry. His model doesn't take into account R-nought, without which no reasonable prediction could have been made. Forget models. All DATA shows about a tenth of predicted deaths across the board, and a flat line, not a peaked curve. Stop letting them play politics with this.
When a really dangerous virus finally hits us, there will be absolutely no question about it, and no one will be able to lie about it and get away with it.
@TimTuolomne I don't agree with him on all points, and I'm not concerned about his model. I agree with him on that there's no correlation between the timing of statewide or regional shelter-in-place orders and a decline in the COVID-19 death rate. In other words, simplified, the lockdown measures did very little to nothing at all in curbing the number of new cases. The was the reason why I shared the above article.
@SpikeTalon, Now I understand, thank you.
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