[centerforhealthsecurity.org]
The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.Numbers like that are roughly in the range of tuberculosis deaths, something that has been going on for a very long time, and we are not losing our minds over that.
And 65 million is far larger than the latest estimates from Dr Ferguson, of the Imperial College London, who was initially talking numbers like that, and now is predicting numbers that extrapolate to something more like 4 million worldwide, and not in 18 months. Far sooner. Then the peak will have passed far down into the background of every other infection.
Calling this a pandemic, when the common cold and flu does roughly the same thing every year is of questionable value. The Spanish Flu was rightly called a pandemic, and resulted in maybe 50 million deaths in 18 months, at a time when we did not have the understanding we do now of these viruses.
TimTuolomne
Level 9
Apr 1, 2020
2
exactly the numbers are low but it can leave a person's lungs in bad shape if your not put on a ventilator soon enough.
@1patriot, So does bacterial pneumonia, and countless other pathogens that have been in circulation for a very long time. This is just the latest in a multi millennial series, and only unique in that we are witnessing what generations prior endured before their immunity was established when new pathogens emerged by evolution, that we have endured now for centuries.
@TimTuolomne this is also a man made virus, is it not?
@1patriot. No. The virus has been sequenced and found to be forensically linked to development in bats and other animals. It has none of the markers that would have to be there to be human spliced. We have limited ways that we know how to splice genes.
That's a pretty outrageous claim. Based on what? A hunch? Don't listen to your hunches. It amounts to fear mongering.
drptree
Level 6
Apr 1, 2020
0
if your mind was corrupt would you not make sure you have the cure before you release it on the world i am not afraid i am only thinking logically
@1patriot. Yes, you would. And you would not release it so it would affect the whole World uniformly as it has.
connecting the dots
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