Observation from an analyst: Whether Russia really attacks Ukraine or not, what is certain is that Russia's preparations are for a real war.

From deterrence theory, if NATO had made slight concessions to Moscow, such a campaign would not have been necessary.

A valid military threat is the way to make concessions behind the political screen.

Intelligence estimates show that Russia has mobilized 70% of the force needed for the war, about 130,000 troops are on the Ukrainian border (about 77,000 during the Georgia war), about 88 battalions.

If Russia wants to occupy the whole of Ukraine, 25-50 thousand civilians could be killed and injured in urban conflicts.