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Is civil war imminent? To hear some people talk, you'd think we may be just days away from everyone quitting their jobs and taking up arms. Certainly some from the far (really far) left were for a while calling for open revolt, though I'm hearing a lot less of that these days. Still, some people are convinced that the current political climate makes open conflict inevitable. So, are we about to enter into a second civil war? No, we're not. Here's why.
Historically, there have been four truly great (as in really big) successful revolts. (Understand, the word "success" is used strictly to mean "overturn the existing government".) The American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Communist Revolution in Russia and the Communist Revolution in China. Let's look at the last three of these. While the last three did have leaders and visionaries, the real driving force behind them was the sheer desparation of the people starving under the corrupt (or incompetent) leadership of their respective governments. Simply put, they had nothing to lose and were being told they just might gain the world if they succeeded (particularly in the cases of the two Communist revolutions). So, who's calling for conflict and revolt today in America?
Well, the most shrill of the voices generally come from people who have enough time on their hands (and food in their stomachs) to obsess over how unjust (fill in the blank) is towards (fill in the other blank). "SJW's" is the name many have given them. And while I freely admit this is not a polite thing to say, the vast majority of them look like they've not had to miss many meals. In fact, not only are they NOT starving, but they apparently have enough time (i.e. money) to spend lots of hours on the internet going on (and on and on) about the unjustices of the world. Who else? From what I can tell, academics, celebrities, and politicians seem to round out the bunch (I'm including journalists under the heading of "celebrities" ). In short, none of them are being driven to desparation by starvation. Indeed, I find myself wondering how many of them would decide that their cause really may not be worth fighting for if they had to start suffering from the deprevations that armed conflict typically bring. So, no, we are not on the brink of war; the very ones calling for it simply do not have the fortutude for it. Especially if they were to learn of the horrific blood baths that such conflicts typically produce. [For an excellent (and disturbing) read on the subject, see "The Great Big Book of Horrible Things" by Matthew White.]
I might, in a future post, discuss the "odd man out" in this, namely the American Revolution.

chaoschatt 4 Apr 20
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As for me and my house, we will all be carrying Glock 43’s with extra magazines and ARs, so prolly ought to pick some softer leftists’ homes if you need something we possess, lol.

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I have to say I'm a bit conflicted on this. On the one hand I am concerned about the ever amassing animosity that is growing between the opposing viewpoints. On the other, I don't think it will escalate to actual full scale or even small scale war.

At this point I don't see any Antifa types zealous enough to willingly become martyrs. So far when "The Resistance" encounters any actual resistance, they scatter.
One state that I know of has a law that prohibits the wearing of masks at protests. In one instance at least, being required to remove their masks took the riot right out of Antifa.

One thing of concern is that in many of these riot-like incidents, the police stand by and do not intervene. They make few if any arrests. I understand that mayors may not want to escalate the situation. And they're probably scared of lawsuits... but absolute non-intervention in these matters serves as encouragement.
At the least they should always arrest a few individuals... unmask them, make the case public, give them the harshest sentences the law will allow and make examples of them. Hence, deterrence rather than encouragement.

If any protest situation gets even a little out of control the Police should show up in force, overwhelming force. Even if they merely stand by they should let the protestors know that the harm they cause is only because the police are allowing it and can put an absolute end to it any time they choose.

I find it a trifle unsettling how some commenters have predicted what they see as the inevitable conflict in such precise detail. Maybe that's because I don't want to think about it... maybe it's because I live in a very red state.

I do think that some behind the scenes entity has some vested interest in this. I don't know if their aim is to foment chaos without letting it get fully out of control, or if pushing matters til they are out of control is the intent.

I have been greatly disappointed in the leaders of both parties for not specifically and frequently denouncing this behavior.

If one can be prepared without being paranoid... that might be the way to go.

For those eager for actual bloodshed... I say put both sides in the middle of the desert, arm them equally and let them have at it... The winners gain the grand prize of imprisonment and the rest of us win the ultimate prize of being able to go on with our lives.

Having been a martial arts instructor for almost 3 decades... I have watched with interest whenever some Antifa type group has offered self-defense classes. Of course their delusion is that they need to defend themselves against "Nazis"... but it appears as if they are really training to be able to assault "Nazis."
But... so far in every video I've watched the technique being taught has proved laughable... and then some. Martial arts proficiency takes a lot of work. Most of the people involved in this political movement... don't seem to be enthused with work.
One guy said that when confronted with a "nazi" there is always throat-punching.
The dude's technique was so sloppy and weak that I think he might actually hurt his hand on someone's throat. The dude was basically inciting violence, as long as it was other people who enacted it. WattaWuss.

@An_Ominous You're absolutely right - such behavior is precisely why I've decided that those calling for war have no concept (and I mean NO concept) of what they're calling for. Much less the stamina. As to the mysterious force pushing them, there's not actually that much mystery about it now. Members of 4chan did a fairly good job of showing that many of the Antifa members were paid provocateurs - paid for by George Soros. That little revelation, along with footage of them attacking a prayer group, probably are why we really don't hear about them too much these days.

@chaoschatt I think a lot of those calling for war think that all it will entail is for them to Tweet Harder 🙂

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This strikes me as a bit disingenuous. You’re framing the entire affair within the perceived context of conventional civil conflict between centralized political actors. You’re making such a long list of assumptions in how you’re framing the thing that it’s a bit ridiculous.

Concerning how this is shaping up, it’s not going to be an issue in the United States alone. I see hostile actions as probable, but civil conflict is another matter depending on if certain matters are left unaddressed and others advanced without much resistance, in the context of policy. There are fundamental questions regarding the basis of our Civilization that are being called into question and an ever-growing resistance to those advancing such ideas that seem to idolize the consolidation of power. It’s going to unfold, if it does at all, as a sectarian conflict. For reference I recommend the recent conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East. They’ll give you a better idea of what you’re sizing up here.

You bring up “Civil War.” Why? Twenty years ago, people would’ve thought you were nuts to even mention such an absurd thing. Now everyone is talking about it. There is a reason for that. The trend data is clear and that points toward conflict. There are an array of cultural and societal divergences that are incompatible with America’s Legal Establishment – due to a host of reasons from the Critical Theory Enthusiasts and leftist revolutionaries trained on the tax-payer dime via Federal Government higher-education programs to unassimilated non-state actors mass migrating to American Jurisdictions, who do not at all hold to the American way of life or respect American history.

It’ll be sectarian. What’s likely to happen is someone will get stupid in a fiercely contested issue between the two prevailing factions – someone will die. One side will declare murder. The other self-defense. The government will be stupid enough to pick a side and the second it does, it aligns itself against a vast swath of its own constituency. That’s when state governments, politicians, and other actors begin to move, and the true vigilante maneuvers take place. Then vendetta, the response, and the escalation.

All this boils down to the Federal Government losing legitimacy. As it loses legitimacy it also loses authority and the ability to keep issues contained. It’s losing legitimacy because it is not operating in good faith to the Constitution, the People of the United States, or the principles for which it stands. The corrupt and childish BS can only go on for so long before people begin to lose respect for it. That’s where we are right now.

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Will there be a "civil war"? It depends on a great many things. There will be those on the ideological liberal progressive far left who will attempt to gain power through violence. I can see the likes of the urban centers of California attempting to form fascist style governments until the food and energy supplies run out. Will these anti-fascists fascists attempt to "invade" rural America? I doubt it, what would be the point? No, they will head for the suburbs, where wealthy neighborhoods of the middle and upper middle, and even the wealthy live. What's there? Money and power. The urban police departments have far more military equipment at their disposal and one can always call up the National Guard for back up. It won't be the democrats versus the world, it will be the progressive far left versus the world, six - two, and even the political elites will sell them out. We may see raids into contested areas, hit squads of limited effectiveness, but disrupt the power grids too much and it all comes crashing down for the far left, they don't know how to exist without all the modern conveniences. Stop or at least reduce the inflow of food and gasoline and the sign is on the wall for all to see.

But people in the far left are preparing for combat. Really? Have you ever been shot at, rocketed, mortared, shelled, come face to face with your enemy? If not, you are not prepared for war, few people ever are even when trained by professional soldiers. And then when one gets to the front line and the danger commences, most will falter.

The real danger is a change in political organizations, a change in government. Should the far left element of the democrat party ever take power in this country, then we should worry. We are likely to see fascism in its worst form. Once a country's government turns into an autocratic form that eventually becomes a dictatorship the the landscape becomes real bloody as the power brokers attempt to leverage and consolidate their power. Read about the Russian Revolution, the real blood baths didn't come until Stalin. First blood was shed in the urban areas as groups fought for control of parts of a city and then the city itself. Later parts of the population were mobilized into political armies and the fighting increased in scale. Even then the participants were only a small part of the larger population. And consider this, will the elites want to see great damage to the country's economic structure? Their money, their wealth, their power is to entwined to suffer great losses.

Bottom line, those in urban areas are most likely to suffer the most with the suburban areas following in such damage. The rural areas, not so much.

3

Every war is viewed in scope according to the standards and conditions of the last great war before it starts and during most of the beginning of it. After the sides judge the actions of their opponents, and if they correctly assess things, they realize their folly and react to the situation. After the war, hindsight shows it was a much different battle than anticipated.

Brits fought the American Revolution like it was the French and Indian War.
Axis & Allies tried to fight WWI like it was the Civil War.
France & Britain prepared for WWII like would be fought like WWI.
The US didn't know how to respond to the guerrilla war in Vietnam.

Hubris will prevent many from seeing war on the horizon and how to fight it, because they think they already know the conditions and the way it will be prosecuted. If and when it comes, it will completely different than imagined by anyone. Never underestimate the power of propaganda by those losing political power because of the hubris to convince the people that they have nothing to lose by upending the status quo. We are not there yet and have a chance of preventing it all, but will we?

Guns of August?

@Tommy6915 Sorry, I don't know the reference.

@Lickspittle, best summery of the book i've heard yet.

@Tommy6915 Yep. I'd say that pretty much sums it up.

@Tommy6915 Or "March of Folly" - another great Barbara Tuchman great that may have some bearing here.

@chaoschatt thx.

Never heard of that. Will have to check it out.

1

It's more of imminate due to the power keg of instability.

American revolution doesn't fit the critiera of civil war so doesn't count.

It's far more likely the glamour of our 1st world nonsense makes us believe we are incapable of terrible actions.
When this eventually cascades into widespread violence which is possible with a very small subsection participating a lot of people are going to have a terrible wake up call.

0

It is not days away ... but it will be a blood bath. The lines will not be across regions. It will be neighbor v. neighbor. There will be no rear area. There will be no understanding about not target non-combatants. Families will be murdered in their beds. You will be attacked in your place of work, worship, the market. There will be no safe place.

With the firepower of modern rifles, and the ability to get around using cars ... it will be far worse than people are thinking. The side with most of the guns will also be the side that is slow to organize, and organization will be a big part of deciding who has an advantage. Death squads will roam the land.

You will be also targeted based on race. IF you are religious, the religion you are practicing could get you killed. It will be bad. Food stocks will fail, and the first winter will kill many due to no food, running water, power or medicine. We will likely not recover. The Marxists will win no matter what ... because the Marxists hate this nation most of all.

It does not matter who wins the fight ... this nation will cease to exist as we know it.

I fear you are correct, (somewhat) sadly. But, He is alive, and at His name all knees shall bend. If we remember this, it’s still great to also be alive and enjoy friends, family, and the future. Happy Easter!

@Gbrydermd hope in the resurrection and the love of God is all we have. If someone loves this nation more than they love Him ... they are worshiping an idol. You rightly are putting your hope in the creator.

I think that we, as a group should write about how this experiment in democracy came to an end. So that when something rises in its place they will know how the marxists did this to us.

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