Predictions:
Extreme Right: Trump 56% Biden 44% Electoral college 405-133 for Trump
Optimistic: Trump 51% Biden 49% Electoral college 301-237 for Trump
Previous and the one I think most probable: Trump 49% Biden 51% but electoral college goes 320-218 for Trump (Trump gets less votes this time than less relative to Biden)
Pessimistic: Biden 51% Trump 49% Electoral college 291 - 247 for Biden
Extreme Left: Biden 53% Trump 47% Electoral college 331-207 for Biden
Anyone that says they can tell you want is going to happen is dreaming. By many measures, Trump should blow Biden out of the water - only the pure hated of Trump THE PERSON is making this anything less than a blowout. Trump has done great for the economy, great for foreign policy, kept promises to the Right on judges, and by all measures, has done will on the covid response - which rightly is mostly on the State Governors.
I can't see anyone that has argued in politics for the last 2 years changing their positions, though there are a lot of voters on the Right that stayed home or didn't vote for Trump in 2016 that are going to support him in 2020. THAT more than anything might make the difference. I'd like to be optimistic, it's my nature....but my cynicism about Americans in general won't let me....
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.My political positions haven't changed, but I have changed my view of President Trump. Or, rather, he changed my view by governing more conservatively that I ever imagined he would. I voted third party in 2016 (the Constitution Party), but I'm all in for President Trump this time around. In fact, I just had my yard sign stolen the other day and am waiting for a new one. The demand for the signs is so high that they keep running out.
KeithThroop
Level 9
Oct 21, 2020
1
I have several friends in a similar position. I bought into Trump from the get-go, though I worked on the Cruz campaign in CA until he dropped out. Without exception the 'never Trumpers' of 2016 in my personal sphere are supporting and voting for him this time around. I think it is worth 2%
@tracycoyle I also supported Cruz here in Illinois. My wife and I actively campaigned for him.
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