LINK Russia's financial system and stability is going to be a 'tough nut' to crack
For years, Putin has sought to sanction-proof Russia by reducing its dependence on western countries while turning to eastern titans like China for trade partnerships and economic growth.
In the aftermath of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, when the United States and European Union bombarded Russia with sanctions, Putin dramatically reduced Russia’s foreign debt — freeing the country from borrowing money from the west — while imposing high import tariffs that de-incentivized trade with the outside world.
In 2019, the country launched an alternative version of the internet, in another attempt to shut out western communication, and began work on an alternative international payments system that could reduce its reliance on the U.S.-dominated SWIFT system.
Meanwhile, Russia has become a primary energy supplier to European countries.
According to Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think tank, E.U. countries imported roughly 40 per cent of natural gas from Russia last year. About half of Russia’s exported oil — roughly 2.5 million barrels per day — is shipped to European countries including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland.
“These disparities in energy consumption represent an asset for Moscow, as more gas-exposed E.U. countries may be unwilling to support stronger anti-Russian sanctions, fearing that Russia could disrupt or cut off their gas supply in retaliation,” wrote Bruegel analysts in a recent report.
So far, western countries have sanctioned Russian oligarchs and assets while largely avoiding sectors of the economy that could threaten their energy supply.
“The base layer of Russia’s economic transactions with the outside world is still being preserved, because the west has exempted the energy trade,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical analyst at BCA Research.
According to Gertken, revenue from energy exports comprises between 30 to 40 per cent of the country’s entire budget.
The Russian economy will still feel pain from the west’s economic assault, experts say, but it may not be enough to deter Putin.
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