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I'm socially conservative, on fiscal policy mixed, open and moderately conscientious.  I'm kind of a hypocrite on the social conservatism as I don't believe in the underlying standard mythology.  On fiscal policy I'm open to Keynesian theory but not socialism.  For the most part I'm happy with my rationale for my positions but there are areas I can not get comfortable with.  Global Warming is the area that causes the most internal conflict.

My position has always been that warming has been exaggerated for political reasons.  I have caught the climate scientists manipulating data to exaggerate warming too many times to ignore it.  That said I expect a 1 degree Celsius warming over the next 50 years.  The mistake people make is in thinking that 1 degree isn't much but the average global temperature is only 16 c.  I can't get around it being a concern.  On the other hand higher temperatures are a safeguard against climate disasters such as cooling from volcanic eruptions that could affect the food supply.  The other problem is that from a geological perspective co2 is at unusually low levels.  So low in fact that if the downward trend continues it could trigger a mass extinction.  My gut tells me we shouldn't be worried about Global Warming and adapt but there remains a lot of painful cognitive dissonance.

How do you coop with uncertainty?

wolfhnd 8 Feb 3
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0

I was once deposed by a lawyer who became all chummy on the bathroom break who said to me I didn't know there was so much minutiae involved in designing highways. I just stared at him.

You can't be a good engineer if you are not worried about minutiae.

On another occasion my friend from human resources asked why we couldn't use the same plans for different projects. Like the lawyer this person was highly intelligent. He was suggesting something that we actually did. A lot of what goes into a project were standard plans assembled into contract. Besides for the obvious non standard details of any project what he was missing is that errors and omissions break contracts.

The point I'm trying to make is that worrying is a habit. A good habit. It's how the worrying affects you that is important.

1

I'm not sure what to tell you!

1

I don't think there is a coping mechanism for uncertainty, you just build up a tolerance to it as time passes.

As for global warming, what frustrates me the most about the debate is this asinine assertion that anyone who doesn't want to completely wreck the world economy and drive people into poverty and starvation in the name of climate change, are "climate change deniers." It's the same stupid tactic we've seen from the progressive Left again, and again, and again. (Ex."If you don't think all white people are racist, then you're a white supremacist!" "If you think that children as young as 8 shouldn't be allowed to take hormone blockers in preparation to transition, then you hate all LGBTQ+ people!" )

It's these overblown, unsupported, emotionally-driven accusations that keep us from finding the necessary middle ground, which SHOULD BE - in this instance - how can we set short-term and long-term climate management goals that do not completely collapse the world economy? How can we migrate from a fossil fuel economy to a ecologically sustainable economy, and what are the various trade-offs between timetable and sacrifices we must make? What technological investments can we make to help us make the timetable more reasonable?

But no, we can't do that, because God forbid people actually talk to each other instead of screaming at each other.

1

"How do you coop with uncertainty?"

I try to figure out what is behind the big trends and what are the underpinning causes for where we are today. Once I gather enough understanding of who is behind the political hysteria and why, than it becomes easier to deal with uncertainty in the world, because I found more understand from within and therefore I can control my own emotions. This approach requires a lot of research and trying to figure out what is going on, but unless I want to stick my head in the sand or adopt the closest religion and run with whatever wild ideas it might offer.... the extra effort is worth the good night sleep. At least for me.

3

I like Bjorn Lomborg’s take on global warming- yes it’s happening but at such a gradual rate that we should approach it rationally. An extreme view will result in bad decisions. Don’t panic, invest wisely.

His latest book is False Alarm:
[goodreads.com]

1

I cope with uncertainty by accepting it as unavoidable. I sort of received a revelation somewhere in the late 90s - early 00s that I can't know enough about reality to be certain about even many "little things," much less the BIG ones. By the 10s, having accumulated enough experience, I could see also that not only can't I know enough because it too big and complex, I can't know enough because I can't trust the information I can find to be true. I was raised a believing Christian as a child but was converted toward Scientism through what I later found to be mis-education. Trust the Science!!! I was a libertarian "rationalist" in my youth, maybe into my 30s, but at some point the world and experience demonstrated its absurdity. Those are a few examples of the shattered world views I've experienced.

In the early to mid 10s I was really probably something of a postmodernist. I had gone through a period of trying to validate my ideologies, through a period of trying to invalidate ideologies with which I disagreed. Finally I discovered that ideology is little more than frames by which the complexities of the world are diminished and a few meaningful priorities can be put into focus. They're functional. On the level of world view, I'm not. I don't have a functional ideology through which to filter the world, so I no longer try to make everything in current year fit together and make sense.

Now I focus on day to day meaning and happiness in my personal relationships and focus most of my inquisitiveness on history, philosophy and theology. They seem more comprehensible than present reality.

Trust the plan, man!!!

govols Level 8 Feb 3, 2021
3

First of all, stop using Celsius or Fahrenheit.
Use Kelvin!
Things will immediately become a lot less confusing.
If it is 10 C today and tomorrow it is 11 C, it is NOT 10% hotter! It is 283/284 hotter, or 0,35%.
I had PhD physicists make that mistake. Interestingly chemist (good ones anyway) never make that mistake.

Don’t worry about global warming. Worry about the things that actually affect you AND you can do something about.

Hanno Level 8 Feb 3, 2021

310 vs 312

That said good point.

Biological system of which the earth is one are generally extremely sensitive to temperature. The earth's carbon sink may be primarily the oceans but plants are a critical consideration. For example a very small change in temperature will turn permafrost bogs into rot that release c02.

@wolfhnd If it makes you feel any better, the Artic was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum 8000 YBP. That temperature change was much more abrupt and definitely not caused by carbon emissions.

I'm not saying we shouldn't take climate change seriously, or denying humans are responsible for much of the variance in post-industrial temps, but I do caution against alarmism. If countries would adopt rapid deployment of modern atomic energy, carbon emissions could be cut 80% in a decade without massive disruption to the economy.

2

Uncertainty where? There are significant uncertainties in our day to day live for which we have zero ability to affect - I try to be aware of them, aware of the efforts of people to evaluate them, address them, otherwise I just ignore them. Or note the effort by which others attempt to use those uncertainties to move forward some agenda - like the climate change hysteria.

Uncertainty in my personal life is minimal. Of course I don't know what tomorrow will bring but I choose many of the things I do today to promote the type of day I want tomorrow to be. Again, I try to be aware of them and understand myself and objective reality so ask that I can be honest decisions.

Now....as to Keynesian theory! GAWD NO!! It is like picking up a nice looking hitchhiker and hoping they're not a mass murderer!!

Fundamentally, I try to learn enough about as many different things as I can - it helps me evaluate choices, opportunities, concerns, "truth" and it helps me to establish/create a baseline for my understanding of reality. That way I can judge how others approach those uncertainties. Lef me offer the simplest example: Someone I know goes to see a new movie and offers their review of it. Then I go see it and it seems I've seen an entirely different movie! The differences in our experiences gives me insight into the other person's biases and perceptions and tells me how I need to consider their opinions in the future on a whole range of issues.

Does this mean I prefer to have some confirmation of my own perceptions? No. But it gives me a baseline to understand the differences.....

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