My understanding of the Russia /Ukraine situation is that Ukraine was always pretty much a part of Russia until the fall of the Soviet Union, it’s why Russians refer to the region as “the Ukraine” instead of just “Ukraine”. The current president of Ukraine is basically a cia puppet and the main reason the U.S. government is so invested in Ukraine is that they want to put missiles there. It’s very similar to the Cuban missile crisis. A high percentage of Ukrainians identity with Russia very strongly and it seems that the primary goal for Russia is to secure the region. It doesn’t look like the start of world conquest in my opinion.
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Thing is - Ukraine wasn't a part of Russia. It's always been it's own separate country/region and ethnic group, but the borders have shifted between Poland/Ukraine/Russia for hundreds of years due to political alliances and wars etc. It wasn't till the Bolshevik revolution and Soviet pact times that it suddenly became Russian property. Russia killed of a lot of natives and imported their own replacements from the 30's onwards which made them also believe they had more of a claim on Ukraine.
Don't forget that when the nazis first rolled into Ukraine, the locals cheered and welcomed them because they thought that they were finally being liberated from Russian rule. Ukrainians also fought against the Russians throughout the whole Russian campaign - not because they supported Germany, but because they wanted independence.
Following WW2 though, many Ukrainians had become dependent on USSR infrastructure.
Hence the country is very split.
In modern times, especially after the fall of the soviet empire, Ukraine has become the buffer zone Poland was post war, against the 'West'.
Nowadays though, things have become inversed and Russia is closer to what the 'West' was compared to the 'West' which has become closer to looking like a woke version of the old soviet union.
On top of all this you have complex cultural issues and bad history spanning hundreds of years.
Given recent events, it looks to me like Russia just wants to remain an independent powerhouse and wants Ukraine as a buffer and a source of influence rather than letting the culture war come directly to it's borders.
Tom81
Level 8
Feb 3, 2022
1
Not entirely true - During the span of time that "Russia" was officially "The Soviet Union" Ukraine was one of the Soviet Union States.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukraine "won" its independence by agreeing to return all Nukes in its inventory to Russia.
At that time you could say Ukraine once again did become an independent State but in reality it has been a puppet regime running things - Russia being the puppet master and hence all of the political corruption we know of.
If the government that occupies the central half of North America sends its very woke social experiment of a military into Ukraine for any reason it will have no benefit for the few remaining taxpayer slaves and could possibly instigate something bigger.
Russia has always been the poor stepchild of Europe. That doesn't mean that it hasn't always had aspirations to be an empire. Part of those aspirations is a warm water port because it is a cold country and has no reliable winter ports. The Crimean war Illustrates how Western Europe has always tried to contain Russian ambitions. [en.m.wikipedia.org]
The Communist revolution in Russia really didn't change much. It replaced the Tear with Stalin and the nobility with the party. It retained it's ambition for empire which WWII made possible. Like China it has long struggled to modernize and find it's "rightful" place in the world. Part of the motivation for modernization is military and part nationalistic pride. Both are still considered second class citizens by the Western powers.
Now that the West is in decline Russia and China see an opportunity to fulfill their ambitions. The West is responding the same way it did in 1853 to the threat of Russia over running the Ottoman Empire. It's amazing how nothing changes over the centuries.
The collectivist mentality that is sweeping the West reflects the reason Russia and China were always backwards. The Eastern mentality has always been about obligations not rights. Human nature is such that rights foster ambitions and progress more effectively than obligations. Rights also come with an assumption of competence and intellectual development. Obligations are more compatible with a slave mentality.
Returning to a rights oriented culture would help the West maintain it's advantages. Perhaps even give it the moral authority to defeat Russia and China.
wolfhnd
Level 8
Feb 3, 2022
2
Good take. Russian mentality has always been a weird one to decipher, even for its neighbours. Gotta remember that Russia was once made up of kingdoms, states and ethic groups before they were 'united' under one flag. Not too dissimilar from the US in some ways.
So they way you could look at it is that its not a matter of something that's sooo alien, different and wrong - but something thats very similar but on the opposite end; like a mirror reflection.
I think Putin is taking advantage of the power vacuum created by the Great Insertion of 2020 but I also think that Putin enjoys his life immensely and he is neither crazy nor stupid. I think he is a like Trump and wants to assert his nations authority but he’s no Stalin.
That is how I see it also. I was thinking Cuban Missile Crises also. I don't know that USA wants to put missiles there but I do know there is talk of Ukraine joining the NATO Alliance.
This would be like California seceding from the Union and then the Chinese or Russians inviting them into an alliance. A former State becoming an independent State but politically and militarily aligned with our enemies.
This scenario would be far worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis in that Cuba was never a State of the Union nor is it geographically connected to CONUS. California actually has much more strategic value to USA than Ukraine would have to Russia because it borders the Pacific Ocean and all of the maritime ports it has.
I can see why the Russians would object. But I do not see the value in their strategy of lining up against the border with Ukraine - threatening to make a military takeover. One would think it would be much more effective to simply declare that Ukraine is part of their territory and to simply depose Ukrainian government officials who would resist which would be silly because Ukraine is a defacto Russian state in the first place. A puppet regime.
However I do believe the Russians would like to reanimate the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Compact.
iThink
Level 9
Feb 3, 2022
2
I would be ok with losing California to the Chinese. Everyone has enough nukes to just launch them straight up and create a nuclear winter that would end all life. Ground based wars are a thing of the past. War now is info/cyber/supplychain and we arent winning any of those.
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