Trump on Sweden [twitter.com]
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.Not that complicated. The R-nought value for SARS COV2 is well-known now. Its 5.7 over 2.5 days. If you can do the math, you know that over 10 billion people would be infected in 5 weeks. So not only did the Chinese have zero chance of containing it by the time they realized it was a problem, the World was fully infected before even being aware of the existence of the problem in China. Dr Li Wenliang announced the first case to have been known 17 November. Trump closed down flights to/from China and Europe on the 31st of January, while Democrats were celebrating his impeachment in the House, 10 weeks after the first case was known, while WHO was still claiming no transmission to human to human.
99% of COVID-19 deaths are smokers or those with serious pre-existing conditions. That's why Italy has more victims and Sweden fewer. Those of us not in that group are at far more danger of getting killed driving to the grocery store than from the virus. Social distancing was always irrelevant. And while the infectiousness of SARS COV2 is four times the Spanish Flu, the mortality rate is almost certainly less than the flu. See "Multiple Conditions Increases Risk." [informationisbeautiful.net]
The media has been nearly bankrupt because it is so mistrusted by the public, and badly needed a sensational story, so they made the most of it as a matter of their survival. And the New York Times proudly reported that 87% of the media are Democrats. The public was only too happy to panic on command, and leadership had no choice but to respond accordingly.
Tell your leadership that this ends now.
TimTuolomne
Level 9
May 1, 2020
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I disagree. Sweden's numbers are high right now, but their strategy, as long as their hospitals are not overloaded, is the correct response with the following considerations:
- The virus will not magically disappear. The pandemic will end when:
a. Vaccine is administered - probably in February, but we don't know.
b. About 60% of the population is exposed - Virus Mortality Rate x population x 60% = the number dead (9,000 for Sweden at a 0.15% MR)
c. Medical cure - no reason to expect this, but more time may provide. - Economic cost in deaths is recognized to exceed the lives saved from the virus if lockdowns are extended. (ex. extending the lockdowns until February may be equivalent to 20,000 (not calculated) people dying in Sweden due to poverty and other economic concerns).
Lockdowns do not save any lives from the virus other than the margin of lives saved by not overloading the local hospitals. In hindsight, excepting New York and New York City, the US did not make the right decision. This comment is buyer's remorse.
Everywhere that locked down will either face a second wave or impoverish itself waiting for the vaccine.
RobBlair
Level 8
May 1, 2020
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Isn't it likely many other cities would have experienced New York-level deaths and overload if they had not acted when and how they did? When I look at the numbers for Chicago, for example, it looks like they acted just in time. Perhaps rural areas could have shut down a few months later, but that might have allowed hotspots to crop up. Moreover, we would not have benefited from Swedish-like social norms without the norm formation of the shutdown.
@WilyRickWiles - looks like Cook county rate of deaths started to slow about 1 1/2 weeks after shut down and just peaked 2 or 3 days ago. But, with 15,000 hospital beds, waiting at least 2 more weeks would not have overloaded the medical system. That of course is hindsight.
If Mortality Rate holds at 0.15% then Cook County is looking at 4,700 deaths regardless excluding economic deaths.
Something went really wrong in NYC. The mortality rate as well as the infection rate is much higher there than in other places.
I think the rate of infection is tied with population density.
This resource is helpful - [geodacenter.github.io] - have a look at "Confirmed Count per Licensed Bed" - If the area isn't red it should probably be open/easing restrictions.
Interesting. Apparently, only 19% of the American population are against the lockdown. i.e., 80% support it and of which more than 60% are prepared for extending the lockdown for several months.
Naomi
Level 8
May 1, 2020
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My god . That's the sadest comment of the possible outcome ive ever heard.. 0.03 percent chance of death. That stat was from NY. You have more chance of getting hit by lightning.. twice.. This panic is creating a disaster. So called busy hospitals. Record tic toc dances by the thousands.. Its not that bad. Open . If you feel sick . Go home. If you're well. Live life again..
@Naomi The main bone of contention for me is earlier models , predictions & " expert testimony . Was incorrect. Wear masks... Don't wear masks... 2 million dead by now in America alone. Viruses mutate, & a more deadly version may surface.. We can only hope society doesn't break down into tribes . Become lawless.. Then the virus would win.
@Seriousreason Listen to science - that's what I would say. I think it is terrible that the media are generating misleading, divisive articles and many people are spreading fake news and conspiracy theories. Ordinary Chinese and Asian people are being targeted and blamed for spreading the virus, so are Muslims and Christians.
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