So the Mexican #coronavirus death has more than quadrupled the secret prediction made in a March Mexican cabinet meeting, which was leaked to the media, that the maximum amount of persons in Mexico to die from COVID-19 would be 2000.
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.How would they have possible thought that only 2000 people would die?
Best estimates total fatality rate is currently 0.4% so that is 500 000 in Mexico maximum.
Considering typically only 35% of a population gets infected you may say that minimum would be 150 000 if you have no intervention such as quarantine and vaccine.
To go from 150 000 to only 2000 implies a superhuman effective lockdown.
Hanno
Level 8
May 28, 2020
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That is of course if you do nothing and the 0,4% is correct. In practice of course modern medicine will reduce deaths greatly to a much lower number... however 2000 is really optimistic.
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